The 2024 NFL season is kicking off with a controversial new rule: the dynamic kickoff. Fans are frustrated, but the change was made for a good reason. The traditional kickoff, where players sprint 30 to 40 yards before colliding, has a concussion rate nearly twice that of a standard play from the line of scrimmage. This new kickoff rule is just one of several solutions the league is implementing to reduce the risk of head injuries.
Hard-hitting action has long been a hallmark of the NFL. But since the early 2000s, news reports and a major lawsuit have brought attention to the severe cognitive issues experienced by players due to on-field head injuries. Although all stakeholders—players, fans, the NFL, and the players’ union—would prefer a future with zero head injuries, that’s not possible without fundamentally changing the sport.
The NFL’s approach highlights the challenge of reducing risk without compromising the core goals of the organization.
Risk is calculated by multiplying consequence and probability. Therefore, if the NFL wants zero risk of concussions, the probability of concussions must be zero. What’s the best way to ensure zero probability of concussions? I’d have to say that the best and only solution would be to stop playing football altogether. Even flag football carries the potential for concussions.
Not playing football is not a great solution, to put it lightly. The NFL is a business, and if its product ceases to exist, the business ceases to exist. Remember this the next time someone tells you they want “zero risk” of injuries in your company. Zero risk is impossible without eliminating the system that contains the risk (in this case, football). A goal of zero injuries is reasonable, but a goal of zero risk is not. Risk isn’t an on/off switch. It must be managed by degrees.
To find realistic solutions to its concussion problem, the NFL must first understand concussions and why they occur on the field. The 3-Why Cause Map™ diagram below shows how concussions happen at a basic level. A player suffers a concussion because his brain tissue is swollen, and his brain tissue is swollen because it is stretched, compressed, or otherwise manipulated in an undesirable way. A limited analysis such as this 3-Why is a good start, but it doesn’t go far enough for us to identify solutions beyond “stop playing football.”
NFL Concussions 3-Why
We’ll deepen our analysis by asking why the player’s brain tissue is stretched or compressed. This occurs due to the brain moving rapidly inside the skull. Why does this rapid movement occur? It’s because the skull stops rapidly, and the brain keeps moving.
NFL Concussions 6-Why
Let’s keep fleshing out the problem. Why does a player’s skull stop rapidly? Of course, that’s because the head stops rapidly. And why does that happen? Football is a rough game, and there are a lot of opportunities for players’ heads to stop rapidly. But in most scenarios, especially those where concussions occur, this occurs due to contact with the ground or other players.
Building out our analysis allows us to find three good solutions, all of which the NFL has implemented since its concussion initiative began in 2016.
NFL Concussions 9-Why with Solutions
Let’s take a quick look at the three solutions identified in the analysis.
NFL helmet technology has evolved significantly in recent years, focusing on reducing head injuries through advanced design and research. The primary goal is to protect the head by slowing down the skull’s deceleration during impacts, which helps lessen the violent movement of the brain. The league provides helmet safety guidelines1 to players and the NFL Players Association (the player’s union) that show the safety ratings of each helmet and define which are approved for use. Additionally, the NFL has also introduced the option for players to wear Guardian Caps that further enhance deceleration and reduce the risk of concussion.
In general, the NFL’s helmet changes have been met with positivity. Players appreciate the increased safety, and fans are typically unbothered by any visual changes on the field (especially since 2024 guardian caps2 now have covers that make them look like traditional helmets).
Since 2002, the NFL has implemented nearly 50 rule changes to reduce concussions during tackling. The most notable change is stricter penalties for helmet-to-helmet contact or “targeting,” which poses a high risk of head injury. Unlike helmet technology upgrades, the NFL’s changes to tackling rules have been controversial3 among fans as well as some players.
Oh, the NFL kickoff, the origin story for some of the most exhilarating plays of all time. I love the traditional kickoff, but as we discussed earlier, it has a high rate of concussions. When league officials voiced concerns over the concussion risks of kickoffs, they had also grown tired of the touch back based on rules implemented in 2022. The solution? The dynamic kickoff4, designed to reduce the speed of the players while still having the ball in play and in the field of play.
When the NFL announced the dynamic kickoff rule, the response was…. not positive.5
Different NFL stakeholders—players, the player’s union, fans, and the NFL organization itself—have different risk profiles. No one wants concussions, but these groups differ in the degree of concussion risk they are willing to accept. I’m going to paint in broad strokes here, but generally:
I’ve depicted these four risk profiles in the graphic below. Typically, risk is represented on a chart with consequence on the y-axis and probability on the x-axis. But in this case, the consequence (concussions) is constant across the groups we’re comparing. So, I’ve used the y-axis to represent the different risk profiles of each group.
NFL Stakeholder Risk Profiles
As the entity that sets the rules, the NFL sets the benchmark. But having the power to make the changes necessary to reduce risk doesn’t make it easy. The NFL must understand and navigate its stakeholders’ risk profiles to define its overall risk tolerance. While the NFLPA demands stringent safety measures, some players prioritize performance over protection. Fans resist changes that alter tradition and lower intensity. Their bodies aren’t on the line, and like many customers, getting the product they want is their top priority.
The NFL’s need to balance different risk profiles and competing priorities mirrors challenges seen in many companies. I’ve had lots of conversations with folks who feel that their company isn’t doing enough to protect employees, meet production goals, or ensure the reliability of their assets. But I’ve also talked to plenty of people who think their companies are too strict.
Aligning risk profiles in problem-solving is like moving the chains in football—there’s no single play that ensures success. Tools like the Solutions Matrix in our Cause Mapping® template help lead productive conversations about which solutions to implement. By huddling up to discuss effort versus results, your team can identify solutions that fit within the company’s overall risk tolerance. The goal isn’t to find one perfect play, but to layer multiple solutions that work together to keep moving the chains toward your risk management and strategic goals.
There are different scales and tools used to assess concussion severity. For the purposes of this analysis, we are focusing on all head injuries diagnosed as concussions on the field. To learn more about the criteria used to diagnose concussions in the NFL, see NFL Head, Neck and Spine Committee’s Concussion Diagnosis and Management Protocol.
1 - Helmet Safety Guidelines
2 - 2024 Guardian Caps
3 - NFL's New Targeting Rule Is Going to Be a Total Disaster
4 - Dynamic Kickoff Explained
5 - If you’re prepared for some inappropriate language, you can check out the reactions on X (Twitter).