On June 12, 2025, Air India Flight AI-171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, crashed moments after takeoff from Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport. Bound for London Gatwick, the aircraft made it two kilometers before plummeting into a densely populated neighborhood. Of the 242 people on board, only one survived.
This tragic incident resulted in catastrophic loss of life, marked the first fatal crash involving a Boeing 787, and prompted immediate action from India’s aviation authorities. While the official investigation is in early stages, there’s already enough information to begin analyzing what happened. It’s a practice I emphasize in our Cause Mapping® workshops: don’t wait until all possible evidence is collected—get started with what you do know.
As always, we begin by documenting the what, when, where, and impact of the incident in the Problem Outline.
Air India 171 Problem Outline
The 787, registered as VT-ANB, took off at 1:38 PM local time. Seconds into the climb, something went wrong. Struggling to gain altitude, the aircraft crashed into the Meghaninagar area near the airport, igniting a massive fire fueled by more than 125,000 liters of jet fuel. In addition to the passengers and crew, dozens of people on the ground were killed.1
Among the devastation, one survivor emerged: Vishwashkumar Ramesh, a British passenger seated in 11A, who was thrown from the wreckage through a ruptured section of the fuselage. His improbable survival underscores the violent nature of the crash.2
Once we’ve defined the problem, the next step is to build a Cause Map™ diagram. Investigators are still gathering evidence3, but that doesn’t mean we can’t begin analyzing cause-and-effect relationships. In fact, getting started early is a good way to clarify the facts and test theories against incoming evidence.
As always, we’ll start with a 5-Why. Working backward from the impact to the safety goal, this 5-Why centers on the basic facts we know thus far. The aircraft lost lift, stalled, and crashed.
Air India 171 5-Why Cause Map™
From this point on, there are many unknowns. Generally, we don’t recommend speculating. But in the very earliest stages of investigations, theories are often the best (or only) place to start.
There are two main theories at this point. Some believe the aircraft lost lift due to a loss of power in both engines. Others think there was an error related to retracting the flaps. We’ll add both of these theories to expand our Cause Map diagram to a 6-Why.
Air India 171 6-Why Cause Map™
Note that we have question marks on the causes for each of the two theories. At this point, the theories are possible causes—we have evidence for these theories, but it’s insufficient or in conflict.
As we expand to an 11-Why, we get into the causes of the two theories.
Air India 171 11-Why Cause Map™
*Click the diagram above to expand
Preliminary video footage shows the aircraft taking off with its landing gear extended, an unusual configuration for a Boeing 787 after takeoff. At this phase of flight, we would expect to see the gear retracted.
Aviation experts, including former British Airways pilot Alastair Rosenschein, noted that the aircraft appeared to struggle to climb, suggesting a possible flap or gear issue.4 Notably, video footage does not show any visible smoke or fire from the engine, further supporting the theory that there was no engine issue.
*Some viewers may find the above footage distressing. Press play at your discretion.
To evaluate this theory, investigators will need to examine the flight data recorders to confirm flap and gear settings. They’ll also need to review maintenance records for prior issues on the aircraft, VT-ANB, an 11-year-old Dreamliner with over 41,000 flight hours.5
The second theory centers on dual engine failure, a rare but possible cause that can be triggered by bird strikes, fuel contamination, or other malfunctions. Witnesses reported hearing “abnormal engine sounds” after takeoff, and the aircraft issued a MAYDAY call.6
Crucially, photo evidence appears to indicate the deployment of the aircraft’s Ram Air Turbine (RAT), a small turbine that automatically extends in three scenarios:
The deployment of the RAT strongly suggests significant power loss was involved. Note that the RAT does not provide, nor is it designed to provide, the capabilities to save an aircraft at approximately 600 ft altitude.7
As with the flaps theory, black box data and maintenance logs will need to be reviewed to evaluate this theory. Additionally, inspectors will need to physically inspect engines for damage and examine air traffic control (ATC) communications. Some experts have also flagged fuel contamination as a possible cause of engine failure, noting that this same aircraft had previously diverted due to a fuel leak in 2021.8
With the deployment of the RAT, I think it’s highly likely that the incident involved a double engine failure. Simply put, there is too much conflicting evidence against the flaps. The prevailing theory of the plane being misconfigured for takeoff is highly unlikely with an experienced pilot and first officer. Additionally, the flaps lever and the gear lever are nowhere near each other, as you can see below.
Boeing 787 Cockpit (Wikimedia, Annotated by ThinkReliability)
Fuel tests on the aircraft’s engines also seem to indicate engine-related issues. I’m interested to see if the enhanced cockpit voice recorder and data recorder reveal further supporting evidence for this theory. The actions of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), which I’ll discuss briefly below, provide insights into the preliminary findings.
Causes must be supported by evidence, not assumptions. The black box, recovered on June 13, 2025, is a crucial piece of evidence in this investigation. It provides data on flight parameters, system status, and crew actions. However, there is much more evidence to examine, including physical wreckage analysis, ATC logs, and interviews with witnesses and the lone survivor. Without evidence, theories remain speculative, risking misdirected solutions.
At the same time, waiting for all the evidence to come in can delay vital safety measures. So, while the investigation is not expected to conclude for at least three months, India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has taken immediate action to mitigate risks across Air India’s Boeing 787 fleet, focusing on preventive measures. These measures include flight control system checks, fuel system reviews, engine performance tests, and closer oversight of maintenance issues.9
While the investigation works to confirm root causes, authorities are already taking steps to limit risk. At ThinkReliability, we strongly agree with this approach. Start with the evidence you have, use it to guide both early action and ongoing data collection, and refine solutions as the investigation progresses. Acting now helps prevent further incidents while still allowing investigators to build a complete technical record in the months ahead. This iterative process is key to proactive safety management in complex systems like aviation.
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1 - https://www.livemint.com/industry/air-india-crash-flight-ai-171-boeing-787-8-crash-india-dgca-air-india-boeing-genx-engines-inspection-dgca-11749822567523.html; https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2025/Jun/13/black-box-recovered-from-crashed-air-india-aircraft-dgca-orders-enhanced-inspection-of-boeing-787-dreamliner-fleet.
2 - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/aviation-watchdog-dgca-orders-enhanced-inspection-of-air-indias-boeing-787-dreamliner-fleet/article69691419.ece
3 - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y5nq170z4o
4 - https://simpleflying.com/boeing-787-first-hull-loss/; https://news.sky.com/story/what-happened-to-air-india-flight-171-aviation-experts-review-crash-video-13382605
5 - https://www.npr.org/2025/06/12/nx-s1-5431662/air-india-crash-boeing-787-dreamliner
6 - https://abcnews.go.com/International/air-india-plane-involved-incident-en-route-united/story?id=122762055
7 - https://www.news18.com/amp/india/what-is-the-boeing-787-8-dreamliner-the-jet-feared-involved-in-air-india-crash-in-ahmedabad-ws-kl-9381945.html
8 - https://vocal.media/criminal/why-did-air-india-flight-a-i171-crash-5-theories-investigators-are-exploring
9 - https://x.com/_prashantnair/status/193350326515046827; https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/air-india-plane-crash-all-boeing-787s-to-be-inspected-dna-testing-of-victims-being-done-key-takeaways-from-centres-1st-briefing-on-crash/articleshow/121846543.cms